The rise in temperatures resulting from climate change has pushed Morocco towards a state of water stress. According to Nizar Baraka, Minister of Equipment and Water, over the period from September to mid-January 2024, the country recorded a rainfall deficit of 70% compared to the average.

Faced with this situation, King Mohammed VI stressed the importance of accelerating medium-term projects. An allocation of $14 billion for the National Drinking Water Supply and Irrigation Program (PNAEPI 2020-2027) will be released.

In August 2024, Morocco announced it would invest $27.5 million in desalination technology from the U.S.-based Energy Recovery. This initiative aligns with Morocco’s broader strategy to increase its desalinated water supply, aiming to source half of the country's drinking water from desalination by 2030.

The tourism sector, representing approximately 7% of Morocco’s GDP, is expected to benefit from the rise in desalinated water, as past water use restrictions during peak seasons have constrained growth. By enhancing water availability, Morocco hopes to support its tourism and broader economic activities that rely on water access.

The effects of water scarcity are projected to become more intense across various sectors of the Moroccan economy, particularly impacting agriculture, which contributes around 10% of GDP. Agriculture's reliance on rainfed systems, with 80% of cultivated areas depending on rainfall, limits the immediate impact of desalination on the sector. While desalination provides a supplementary water source, rainfed agricultural practices will likely remain vulnerable to erratic precipitation patterns, underscoring the need for diversified water management strategies to address long-term water security.

Currently, Morocco’s desalinated water production trails other North African countries in per capita output, highlighting the urgency of the new technology acquisition. The technology from Energy Recovery will be deployed across multiple desalination projects to expand daily potable water production from the current 0.53 million cubic meters to over 1 million cubic meters. This boost in capacity represents a substantial 189% increase, underscoring Morocco’s commitment to improving water availability despite facing inherent environmental challenges.

Despite Morocco's political stability and targeted investments in desalination infrastructure, water scarcity remains a persistent concern. While Morocco outperforms many of its North African counterparts in BMI’s ESG Country Resource Scarcity risk index, the country’s score suggests that water scarcity will continue to pose a threat to economic growth and resource sustainability. The desalination efforts may mitigate some pressures but are unlikely to eliminate the overarching issue of water scarcity.

Tourism, significantly affected by water restrictions in previous years, particularly in major regions like Casablanca-Settat and Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, stands to gain from desalination advancements. The Agadir desalination plant, operational since 2021, has already demonstrated positive outcomes by averting water rationing in this popular tourist area. These targeted investments indicate Morocco's strategic approach to ensure the availability of drinking water in urban areas, thereby supporting a critical sector for the national economy.

While desalination is expected to offer limited immediate benefits to agriculture due to the predominance of rainfed farming, irrigation infrastructure advancements could enhance its impact. Irrigated agriculture contributes more than 50% of Morocco's agricultural value-added, so future desalination expansions focused on irrigated areas could support greater productivity. However, the agricultural sector’s heavy reliance on rainfall will necessitate additional measures to strengthen water resilience amidst ongoing climate variability.

Sources: BMI, African News